By Dr Jimmy Hendry Nzally
When Gambians vote in the December 2026 presidential election, they will mark ten years since one of Africa’s most significant democratic transitions. The defeat of Yahya Jammeh in December 2016 ended 22 years of authoritarian rule and represented a historic moment in Gambian political development. It was not simply an electoral change of government; it marked the beginning of a complex process of democratic transition, institutional reconstruction and political transformation.
The 2016 transition demonstrated the power of collective political action. Opposition parties, civil society organisations, religious leaders, youth activists and the Gambian diaspora united around a common objective: ending authoritarian rule through constitutional means. Coalition 2016 showed that entrenched authoritarian systems could be challenged through electoral mobilisation, political compromise and popular participation. However, comparative studies of democratisation demonstrate that removing an authoritarian regime is only the beginning of democratic development. The more difficult task is democratic consolidation: strengthening institutions, embedding democratic norms and ensuring that political competition operates within a stable constitutional framework.
Ten years after the transition, The Gambia therefore faces a different political question. The issue is no longer whether authoritarian rule has ended, but whether democratic institutions have become sufficiently strong to sustain political stability, accountability and public confidence beyond individual leaders and political coalitions.
From authoritarian rule to democratic consolidation
The evolution of Gambian politics reflects three distinct political periods. Under Sir Dawda Kairaba Jawara, the First Republic was characterised by relatively stable party loyalties, institutional continuity and competitive elections within a dominant-party system. While the period faced challenges related to political inclusion and state capacity, party identities remained relatively established. The 1994 military coup that brought Yahya Jammeh to power marked a major departure from this political trajectory. Jammeh’s rule reflected the characteristics of personalist authoritarian governance, where executive authority became concentrated around the presidency, institutions were weakened and political competition operated within restricted boundaries.
The 2016 election and subsequent transfer of power represented therefore not only a change in leadership but also an opportunity to rebuild institutions after two decades of authoritarian governance. The challenge facing the post-Jammeh era was not simply replacing one government with another, but transforming political practices and institutions shaped by authoritarian rule. Adama Barrow became president as the consensus candidate of Coalition 2016. His election reflected a broad political compromise among actors who differed in ideology and political history but shared the objective of ending authoritarian rule.
During the campaign, Barrow publicly committed himself to a three-year transitional presidency before constitutional reforms and fresh elections. Although this commitment was not legally binding, it became an important element of the political expectations surrounding the transition. Today, President Barrow’s intention to seek another mandate under a constitution that does not impose presidential term limits highlights an important distinction in democratic politics between constitutional legality and political legitimacy. While constitutional rules establish the formal framework for political competition, democratic consolidation also depends upon public trust, institutional credibility and the relationship between political leaders and citizens.
Political realignment and the transformation of Gambian politics
The Barrow presidency has significantly transformed the structure of Gambian political competition. Understanding this transformation requires examining the longer evolution of the country’s party system. Since 2017, Gambian politics has increasingly been characterised by political realignment, coalition-building and cross-party alliances. This reflects a common feature of post-authoritarian democracies, where political actors must transition from movements of opposition into systems of governance. Coalitions that unite around the objective of removing authoritarian rule often face new challenges once they enter a competitive democratic environment.
President Barrow’s administration has expanded its governing coalition through cooperation with former political opponents and actors from different political traditions. Political movements and actors associated with the Gambia Democratic Congress (GDC), the Gambia Moral Congress (GMC), Citizens’ Alliance, the National Reconciliation Party (NRP), and elements linked to the former ruling Alliance for Patriotic Reorientation and Construction (APRC) have become part of a broader political realignment around the National People’s Party (NPP).
From a comparative political perspective, coalition-building is neither unusual nor inherently undemocratic. In many democracies, alliances are necessary mechanisms for accommodating competing interests and creating governing majorities. The central analytical question is therefore not whether coalitions exist, but what foundations sustain them. Coalitions contribute to democratic consolidation when they are based on clear policy objectives, institutional commitments and shared principles of governance. However, when alliances depend primarily on electoral calculations, elite accommodation or individual political relationships, they may provide short-term political stability without necessarily strengthening democratic institutions.
The long-term durability of democracy depends less on the size of political alliances than on the strength of institutions capable of ensuring accountability, transparency and predictable rules of political competition.
Opposition politics and democratic competition
The transformation of governing alliances has occurred alongside significant changes within the opposition landscape. The United Democratic Party (UDP), which played a central role in Coalition 2016, remains a major political force, but opposition parties have faced difficulties in recreating the unity that characterised the struggle against authoritarian rule.
From the perspective of democratic development, opposition fragmentation is not simply an electoral issue. Effective democracies require credible alternatives, meaningful policy debate and institutions capable of holding governments accountable. When political competition becomes centred primarily on personalities, alliances and electoral strategy, broader discussions about governance and national development can become secondary. The experience of Coalition 2016 also highlights a broader lesson about democratic transitions: movements that successfully unite against authoritarian systems often struggle to maintain cohesion once the authoritarian challenge has disappeared. The transition from opposition politics to institutional politics remains one of the most difficult stages in democratic consolidation.
Governance beyond elections
The future of Gambian democracy will ultimately depend not only on electoral competition but also on the capacity of institutions to address citizens’ everyday concerns. Democratic legitimacy is strengthened when citizens experience improvements in economic opportunity, public services and security.
Poverty, unemployment and limited economic opportunities remain significant challenges. With a predominantly young population, creating employment opportunities is central to reducing migration pressures and strengthening confidence in democratic governance. Healthcare, education and infrastructure also remain important indicators of state capacity. The effectiveness of democratic institutions is measured not only by how leaders are elected but by their ability to deliver public goods and respond to citizens’ needs.
Security sector reform remains another important dimension of democratic consolidation. The continued presence of the Ecowas Mission in The Gambia (Ecomig) reflects both the international support that helped safeguard the transition and the ongoing importance of building national institutions capable of protecting constitutional order.
The next decade of Gambian democracy
The December 2026 election should therefore be understood within a broader historical context. It is not simply a contest between political parties or candidates; it represents another stage in The Gambia’s longer democratic journey. The central challenge facing the country is moving from democratic transition to democratic consolidation. This requires stronger institutions, constitutional stability, accountable governance and a political culture where democratic rules are respected beyond individual political interests.
The Gambia’s experience offers wider lessons for African democracies emerging from authoritarian rule. The fall of an autocratic regime is a significant achievement, but democracy is sustained through institutions, public trust and continuous political development.
A decade after the democratic breakthrough of 2016, The Gambia stands at an important crossroads. The future of its democracy will depend not only on electoral outcomes but on whether political leaders, institutions and citizens can strengthen the foundations of inclusive, accountable and resilient governance. The next decade will determine whether the promise of 2016 becomes a lasting transformation in the country’s political history.
Dr Jimmy Hendry Nzally is a political scientist specialising in African politics, democratisation and decolonisation. He holds a PhD in Political Science, with doctoral research on the fall of authoritarian rule and democratic transition in The Gambia following the 2016 presidential election.