Uwaleke: Stock Market Will Deliver Modest But Attractive Return in H2

Kayde Tokede 

A renowned capital market economist, Prof Uche Uwaleke, has stated that the Nigerian stock market is expected to deliver a more modest but still attractive return to investors in the second half of 2026.

His comment followed the extraordinary 47.4 per cent return in H1 2026.

Uwaleke, who was speaking at the ASAM webinar series with  the theme, “Mid-year Macro-economic Review & Outlook for H2 2026,” listed  Dangote Refinery listing, FTSE Russell Decision, cross-border listings and corporate earnings as the major catalysts to drive the market.

He  expressed the  possibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) increasing its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) in the penultimate election year amid its move to tackle inflation  in the country.

He noted that 2026 is a  penultimate election year, stressing that the preponderance of the historical evidence is that inflation is usually slightly higher caused by pre-election spending.

“If inflation is demand driven, as a result of money supply, of course you will expect that the central bank will hike  the interest rate. If the interest rate is further increased, the impact on the equities segments would be negative. 

“There is an inverse between the interest rate and the stock market performance.   Of course, the fixed income market will benefit once there is a hike in interest rate,”  he explained. 

In his goodwill message, the  Director-General, Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC), Dr. Emomotimi Agama, yesterday revealed that the capital market community has engaged with foreign investors to address FTSE Russell, a global institutional investors and custodians to address concerns over Nigeria’s T+1 settlement.

The MD/CEO, Arthur Steven Asset Management,  Mr. Tunde Amolegbe,  in his presentation titled, “Navigating Opportunities in a Changing Nigerian Economy,”  said the direction of the CBN’s monetary policy would  remain the primary driver of market performance.

“Following the reduction of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 26.50per cent, investors will monitor whether further policy easing is possible,”Amolegbe said.