This is one question that has refused to take leave of me at the moment, and the answers don’t look as simple as the question. The reason is that technology grows so fast, sometimes more than the speed of light, hyperbolically, that we are either left behind or simply fail to notice the failings in a system that render reasonable effort superfluous. The excitement generated by the introduction of 5G to the nation’s telecommunications ecosystem has been buried by the euphoria generated by the coming of artificial intelligence (AI), which, like other technologies before it, is credited with the near possibility of recreating the world in its own image and assigning responsibilities to man in all places except for things that happen in the inner room between couples.
The world is hooked on AI, and global bodies and big nations are only issuing cautions concerning safety, which is understandable, because one little malfunction could wreak a lot of havoc. This is not to increase anybody’s blood pressure but just a little bit more realistic, even as AI companies and investors are already smiling to the bank. It is the thing with new technologies until humanity has invented a more superior one. But nobody knows yet if all that invention and breakthrough will be ceded to AI! Nigeria is a serious member of the global AI community, and the Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr Bosun Tijani, has never hidden his aspirations about the role he wants the country to play. Under his ministry, there is Nigeria’s National Artificial Intelligence Strategy (NAIS), which is domiciled at the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA).
Launched in September 2025, the Strategy sets a five-year vision (2025-2029) to make Nigeria a global leader in ethical AI innovation. The strategy pursues three main goals, which include economic growth and competitiveness, social development and inclusion, and technological advancement and leadership. At the international level, Tijani was appointed a Founding Member of AI for Good Global Commission, a high-level international body convened by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), to advance trusted, inclusive and globally coordinated approaches to AI. The body is co-chaired by President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and internet entrepreneur and philanthropist Marc Benioff, with ITU Secretary-General Doreen Bogdan-Martin as vice-chair. Trust me, on AI, Nigeria has a voice in the highest places. However, this material is not about AI but 5G, whose progress seems to have entered hibernation very prematurely. Leading to the first 5G license auction on December 13, 2021, we had warned on this page of the need for the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the regulator of the telecommunications industry, to be allowed to do a job that serves the general good of the nation.
If you express a little interest in the history of the sector, MTN and Mafab, a little industry upstart, won at the auction with bids of $273.6m each, which was clearly above the reserve price of $197.4m. This was obviously a huge sum of money, and an excited NCC pledged to put a two-year moratorium on further 5G licensing so as to give the operators a little window to recoup some of their investment. But words are cheap, Prof Femi Osofisan wrote in one of his books. Exactly a year later, the regulator was revving up for another auction, which concluded on December 7, 2022. The license won by Airtel Nigeria Limited came at a cost of $316.7m, well above the reserve price of $273.6m. This was in the final days of the Buhari administration. We warned on this page that there was no good intention behind the action, adding that a nation shouldn’t be behaving like a man selling scrap metal for survival. We suspected that the auction was a gambit for a valedictory heist. We remain resolute in our suspicions. Well, let’s give history a little space and return to our question: Where is 5G now? Globally, 5G is doing very well. 5G coverage is reaching over 55 percent of the global population, with America, China and South Korea leading the way. The statistics are as follows: Europe, about 74 percent of the population; Asia-Pacific, about 70 percent of the population; the Americas, about 60 percent; and Africa and low-income nations, reaching between 10 and 12 percent of the population.
Nigeria, where services were launched in 2022, belongs to the last group without any argument, and it will be our little responsibility here to track how well the nation has done. Globally, 5G is projected to impact GDP with $1.3trn across sectors like smart cities and utilities. Always, we ask the little question: what is the share of Nigeria in this respect? The ITU notes that 5G technologies support applications such as smart homes and buildings, smart cities, 3D video, work and play in the cloud, remote medical services, virtual and augmented reality, and massive machine-to-machine communications for industry automation. By January 2024, 261 5G operators were doing business across 101 countries of the world, with another 90 ready to launch services. There are currently over 390 service providers. Without doubt, 5G will remain a dominant technology now and in the years ahead, and may only be reinforced and enhanced by 6G, which is already hanging around the corner. 5G services were launched in Nigeria by MTN on August 24, 2022. It was claimed by the NCC that Mafab had also launched services in both Abuja and Lagos on January 24 and 26, 2023, respectively. This writer can attest that Airtel equally rolled out services in Abuja, Lagos, Ogun and Rivers State on January 19, 2023.
At the moment, there are about 6.77m subscribers on the 5G networks of MTN, Mafab and Airtel, with network penetration restricted to only major business hubs, cities and state capitals. Without doubt, this is but a very small fraction of the mobile penetration in the country, not to talk of the overall population. There is bullish optimism in some quarters that 5G penetration can grow exponentially in Nigeria to enable the sector to earn a fair share from global 5G projections. My optimism doesn’t enjoy that excitement, and I will explain. As Nigeria was preparing to launch 5G services in August 2022, India conducted its 5G auctions from July 26, 2022 to August 1, 2022. A hefty sum of $19bn was raked in, with Reliance Jio splashing $11bn, followed by Bharti Airtel $5.4bn, Vodafone Idea $2.4bn, and Adani Group $27m. The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) did something very creative. The money wasn’t going to be paid once but staggered over the 20-year duration of the license, and payment would be in equal annual instalments. The result of such regulatory creativity was instantaneous. Indian operators rolled out 5G services by October 1, 2022, almost at the same time as Nigerian operators. As we speak, Indian 5G service operators have garnered an astounding 500m users with a coverage of 99 percent, while 100 percent national coverage and one billion subscribers are projected for 2030. Placed side by side, you can see that Nigeria has hardly moved a needle as far as 5G is concerned.
So what happened? The Indian regulator was very creative while our regulator, under the last administration, was dumb and more anxious to put money in the hands of the government for reasons not to be hazarded here, instead of amortising part of the licensing fees for operators to roll out services. The rigour that underlined the first GSM auction in January 2, I am sure that the 5G benefits to India cannot be compared to ours, which money may since have been used to deliver a life of luxury to some ignoble people in government. So, where is 5G now? My final answer: forget the excitement and optimism. Let the regulator revisit the entire ecosystem and articulate ways to formally open up the sector for the nation to experience a little of what 5G is delivering to the rest of the world.
If you want, I can also produce a clean copy ready for publication with punctuation and grammar polished throughout.
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