KWARA’S POLITICAL UNDERDOG Is Araba writing a different script? asks

 ABDULKAREEM RAMMADAN-AKEREBIATA

As the contest over who succeeds Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq intensifies within the All Progressives Congress (APC), one figure appears to be charting a markedly different political course.

While the state’s political conversation has been dominated by reports of resistance from a group of governorship aspirants to the perceived emergence of Speaker Saliu Danladi as the governor’s preferred successor, Engr. Femi Sanni, popularly known as Araba, has conspicuously stayed away from both camps.

In a season of endorsements, counter-endorsements and internal power struggles, Araba has chosen another strategy: selling himself directly to party members and ordinary Kwarans rather than becoming a visible actor in the unfolding succession battle.

That approach has made him something of an underdog.

Political underdogs are often overlooked because they lack the backing of entrenched structures. Yet history shows that such politicians can sometimes redefine political contests by appealing beyond the established camps.

What makes Araba’s seeming underdog status particularly intriguing is the political pedigree that underpins his journey. Unlike many aspirants whose public profile has largely evolved around government appointments or contemporary political structures, his supporters point to roots in the progressive democratic movement that predate the current political order.

Until recently, only a small circle of former NADECO chieftains reportedly knew that Araba was among those who quietly financed the pro-democracy struggle while living in exile during the military era. His role remained largely outside public attention until recent disclosures brought that chapter of his political history into wider focus.

His long-standing attachment to progressive politics also resurfaced during the current succession process. His 2003 House of Representatives contest on the platform of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), one of the political traditions that later merged into today’s APC, surprised many within Kwara’s political circles and reinforced the impression that his political journey has been shaped by ideological continuity as much as electoral ambition.

That background also situates Araba within the broader progressive family that has, over the years, been championed nationally by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. While the President has repeatedly emphasised party supremacy, internal democracy and the importance of allowing party processes to run their course, Araba’s own campaign has similarly focused on consultations with delegates and grassroots members rather than public alignment with any of the contending camps.

It is this combination of political history and current positioning that has prompted some observers to draw comparisons—not in terms of political ideology or identical circumstances—but in terms of political resilience and independence, with the late C.O. Adebayo, whose political journey was often characterised by persistence and an ability to remain relevant outside dominant power blocs.

Whether that comparison ultimately proves justified remains to be seen.

Unlike many aspirants whose names have featured prominently in the ongoing dispute over succession within the APC, Araba has not publicly aligned himself either with those challenging the alleged consensus around Danladi or with those perceived to be promoting it. Instead, he has consistently projected himself as a bridge-builder focused on consultations across Kwara’s three senatorial districts.

Rather than joining the public contest over who enjoys the governor’s blessing, Araba seems determined to allow party members to judge him on his own credentials.

Whether that strategy succeeds will depend on several factors, including how much influence the party structure ultimately exerts over the primary process and whether grassroots consultations can translate into national leadership support.

Still, neutrality carries its own political advantages.

Should the current divisions within the APC deepen, a candidate who has avoided open confrontation with either side could emerge as an acceptable compromise for different blocs within the party.

For now, Araba remains one of the very few aspirants whose political capital lies less in factional alignment than in the perception that he represents a fresh alternative anchored in a long association with progressive politics.

That does not make him the favourite.

But it may explain why some have begun to describe him as Kwara’s political underdog.

And in politics, underdogs have a habit of becoming serious contenders when established calculations begin to shift.

Mr Akerebiata is an Ilorin based political economist, social commentator and an influencer.