Nigeria’s Democracy Under Threat Without Electoral Reforms, Forensic Oversight, Says CIFCFIN Chairman

Bennett Oghifo

The Founder and Chairman of the Governing Council of the Chartered Institute of Forensics and Certified Fraud Investigators of Nigeria (CIFCFIN), Dr. Iliyasu Gashinbaki, has raised concerns over the state of Nigeria’s democracy, warning that the country risks a deepening electoral crisis ahead of the 2027 general election if urgent reforms are not implemented.

In a Democracy Day statement issued on June 12, 2026, Gashinbaki argued that democracy should not be viewed as a gift but as a system that requires constant vigilance and forensic safeguards to preserve its integrity.

According to him, allegations surrounding the nation’s political landscape, including claims of widespread irregularities during recently concluded party primary elections, fears of the emergence of a one-party state, concerns about judicial independence, and alleged attempts to compromise the electoral process, should not be dismissed as mere political rhetoric.

He warned that such developments represent familiar warning signs that have historically preceded democratic decline in several countries.

“Democracy is not a gift – it must be forensically defended,” he declared, describing the current situation as a critical moment for Nigeria’s democratic journey.

The CIFCFIN chairman maintained that if the prevailing conditions are allowed to persist until the 2027 elections, it would be difficult to guarantee a free, fair, and credible electoral process.

To address the concerns, Gashinbaki called for several immediate reforms, including the mandatory real-time electronic transmission of election results by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), as well as a publicly accessible and forensically audited voter register at least 90 days before elections.

He also urged the National Judicial Council (NJC) to investigate Judges accused of issuing conflicting ex parte orders, stressing that the judiciary must remain above political influence if public confidence in democratic institutions is to be sustained.

In addition, he advocated a level playing field for all 18 registered political parties, free from what he described as any form of manipulation or undue advantage.

Without these reforms, he warned, the 2027 elections could produce outcomes similar to or worse than those witnessed during the party primaries.

Beyond institutional reforms, Gashinbaki emphasised the importance of forensic science in safeguarding electoral integrity, arguing that effective enforcement mechanisms are essential for translating democratic ideals into reality.

He proposed the introduction of pre-election forensic vetting of all candidates seeking public office, including verification of academic credentials, birth records, and tax clearance documents before their names are placed on the ballot.

According to him, the Chartered Institute of Forensics and Certified Fraud Investigators of Nigeria is prepared to support the process by authenticating and certifying the validity of candidates’ records.

He further recommended the deployment of forensic analysts within INEC’s result collation system to detect potential manipulation in real time.

With the growing influence of artificial intelligence in political communication, Gashinbaki also advocated the engagement of forensic deepfake detection experts to identify and counter AI-generated disinformation capable of misleading voters, electoral authorities and even the courts.

He argued that forensic evidence remains one of the most effective tools for ensuring accountability, particularly in situations where public confidence in institutions is under strain.

The CIFCFIN chairman also criticised aspects of the Electoral Act 2026, which he described as containing “fatal loopholes” that could undermine electoral transparency.

Specifically, he pointed to provisions he said permit manual result tampering and allow delays in the electronic transmission of election results.

He called on the National Assembly to urgently amend such sections of the law to strengthen electoral credibility before the next general election.

At the same time, Gashinbaki urged the NJC to accelerate investigations into allegations of political interference involving judicial officers.

According to him, any judge found to have deliberately issued orders capable of disrupting electoral timelines should face immediate suspension and prosecution.

“Democracy cannot survive in any nation when the umpire is compromised,” he stated.

He further called on Nigerians, the Nigerian Bar Association, civil society organisations and other democratic stakeholders to insist on what he termed a “forensically tracked mandatory public stress test” of INEC’s technological infrastructure at least six months before the 2027 elections.

The exercise, he said, should be conducted openly and broadcast live to enable citizens to assess the preparedness of the electoral system.

“If the system fails in a mock exercise, it will be a disaster in reality,” he warned.

While acknowledging the seriousness of the challenges confronting the nation’s democracy, Gashinbaki maintained that the situation remains reversible if citizens demand greater transparency and accountability from public institutions.

He concluded that forensic oversight should become a central pillar of Nigeria’s electoral architecture, insisting that the future of the country’s democracy depends not only on technological reforms but also on the collective determination of citizens to insist on credible processes.

APC Elders Caucus Kicks against Emergence of Danladi as Party’s Guber Candidate in Kwara

Hammed Shittu in Ilorin 

The latest sign of deepening divisions within the Kwara State chapter of the All Progressives Congress(APC) seemed to have emerged yesterday as the party’s elders caucus kicked against the emergence of the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Danladi-Salihu, as the governorship candidate of the party ahead of next year’s general election.

The elders’ caucus said that Rt. Hon. Danladi lacks the statewide appeal, acceptability, and political strength required to unite the APC and effectively challenge an increasingly resurgent opposition in the state.

Speaking at a press conference in Ilorin,  the Chairman of the party’s elder caucus, Chief James Bamisaiye Ayeni, who spoke on behalf of other party’s elders caucus members, opined that:  “We do not believe that the purported emergence of Rt. Hon. Yakubu Salihu Danlad, I, as the APC governorship candidate, represent the strongest political option available to the party at this critical moment.”

Other party elders and caucus members at the event included Senator Mohammed Ahmed (Kwara North), Senator Makanju Ajadi (Kwara South), and Hon. Salman Jawondo (SAN) (Kwara Central).

Ayeni said that they had decided to publicly intervene after exhausting internal mechanisms to no avail and watching what they described as a steady drift of the party towards political danger.

According to him, while they had remained loyal to the party and built it over the years, the current situation had reached a point where “silence is no longer golden.”

“We have invited you here today because we believe the APC in Kwara State is standing at a crossroads and that those who genuinely love this party can no longer afford the luxury of silence,” he said.

He added: “Let us state clearly that we have no personal grievance against the person of Rt. Hon. Salihu Yakubu Danladi. We do not begrudge his political aspirations, nor do we question his right to seek higher office. Our concern is entirely political and strategic.

“Rt. Hon. Danladi was not the strongest candidate available to confront the developmental, economic, and security challenges facing Kwara State.

“Political realities have changed. Public expectations have changed. Voter behaviour has changed.

“The assumption that the APC can present any candidate and still coast to victory is not supported by the facts on the ground.”

He said that after statewide consultations, they have come to the conclusion that Danladi lacks the statewide appeal, acceptability, and political strength required to unite the APC and effectively challenge an increasingly resurgent opposition.

He noted that they had consistently offered advice, guidance, and constructive criticism to both the party and government while working to preserve the progressive ideals that brought the APC to power in the state.

The group leader stressed that the state Governor, Alhaji AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, was allegedly misleading President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the true situation of the party in the state, and warned that the party was heading towards electoral defeat if it proceeds with Danladi as its standard bearer.

Ayeni also accused  Governor AbdulRazaq of failing to provide President Tinubu and the national leadership of the APC with an accurate assessment of the political realities in Kwara State.

According to him, the governor ought to have prioritised the collective interest of the party above personal considerations.

“The future of the APC is too important to be subordinated to the ambitions or the personal ego of the governor or any other person for that matter,” he said.

Ayeni further alleged that the popularity and acceptability of Danladi’s candidacy had been exaggerated through orchestrated media campaigns and endorsements designed to create a misleading impression before stakeholders outside the state.

“The truth is that whatever media theatrics have been staged so far are merely attempts to create a false impression of acceptance where none exists,” he added.

He also accused unnamed presidential aides of allegedly working behind the scenes to impose Danladi on the party.

“We are aware that certain influential aides in the presidency are actively working to foist this unpopular option on the APC in Kwara State in exchange for patronage and other pecuniary benefits now or in the foreseeable future,” he alleged.

The caucus, therefore, appealed directly to President Tinubu, APC National Chairman Professor Nentawe Goshwe Yilwatda, and members of the National Working Committee to urgently intervene.

He urged the national leadership to engage more broadly with stakeholders in Kwara State and reassess the circumstances that produced Danladi’s candidacy before it is too late.

“The threat to true democracy is imminent, but it is not irreversible. Forensics will not save Nigeria; Nigerians who demand mandatory forensics will,” he said.